What Does “Priced In” Mean in Markets?
When traders say an event is “priced in,” they mean market prices may already reflect some expectation of that event. It does not mean the outcome is certain, fully reflected, or incapable of moving prices when new details arrive.
What it does mean
Participants have already traded on a baseline scenario. Surprises relative to that baseline still move prices.
What it does not mean
- That the event is guaranteed
- That every detail is already known
- That assets cannot react when the event arrives
Related: Risk-on / risk-off · hub